The 2024 Guild Nominations and What They Might Mean for Oscar.

With the Golden Globes wrapped and the usual over-analysis of what each win might mean for the Oscars taking up lots of social media outlets this past week, the likely Oscar nominees are beginning to emerge. But not necessarily because of the Globes. Despite many morning news shows touting the Globes as an Oscar predictor, the truth is, they're not really that reliable.

The odds vary by category, but the Globes only correctly predicted seven of the last twenty Best Picture Oscars, 10 out of 20 Best Directors, and so on. The Globes do slightly better in the acting categories, but remember, they separate comedy from drama, so that increases chances of a Globes-Oscar score. Following this year's individual acting recipients, the Best Actress race will be a run-off between Lily Gladstone for Killers of the Flower Moon and Emma Stone for Poor Things. Probably a good bet, but don't count out Carey Mulligan in Maestro, who's racked up a number of film critics rewards. The Best Actor category would come down to Paul Giamatti in The Holdovers and Cillian Murphy's turn in the titular role in Oppenheimer. Still, there's possibly strong contention from Bradley Cooper, whose portrayal of Leonard Bernstein in Maestro is very popular among the Hollywood community.

Overall, the Globes only have a 40 percent chance of picking Oscar winners, probably because none of the members of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association are voting members of the Academy of Motion Pictures Arts and Sciences (AMPAS).

But wait! The Oscar nominations haven't been announced yet, so we'll have to wait until Tuesday, January 23 for the final list. Meantime, though, the various guilds have arrived at their final cut, so let's see how they might affect Oscar.

Screen Actors Guild (SAG)

Awards Ceremony Sunday, February 24 (8 pm EST on Netflix)

SAG only awards in the acting category for film and television, so no Best Picture, Best Director or Writing awards. In place of Best Pic, SAG has a Best Ensemble category which is its equivalent of a best overall film. This year's five nominees are mostly strong: American Fiction, Barbie, The Color Purple, Killers of the Flower Moon and Oppenheimer. I was surprised by the exclusion of The Holdovers, especially w/Paul Giamatti and Da'Vine Joy Randolph's individual nominated performances, but it's still likely to come down to Barbenheimer, which may also give a glimpse into who will win the Oscar. Since the inception of this category in 1995, the SAG winner for Best Ensemble has predicted 14 of the eventual Best Picture winners, so roughly 50%. Not bad, but only slightly better than the Globes.

In the four individual acting categories, SAG has fared better with a 74% success rate. Eighty-three of the 112 SAG acting recipients have gone on to win the Oscar that year, which should make for an interesting race. This year, SAG opted to nominate a few lesser-known performances by veteran actors that may or may not yield an award from the entire industry.

In the supporting actor (male and female) categories, the inclusion of Sterling K. Brown for American Fiction is an interesting choice, but the omission of Mark Ruffalo (his co-star, Willem Dafoe was nominated) for Poor Things seems off. As I've already indicated, if I had to pick between Ruffalo and Dafoe, Ruffalo had the role that required wider range: a quirky, comedic timing with underlying lust. What could have been a cloying role was, instead, annoyingly funny. Subtle difference, maybe, but an important one. I'm still not sure why Robert Di Niro keeps getting nominated for essentially playing the same curmudgeon, but that's probably what Hollywood royalty are accorded. The showdown is still between to Robert Downey, Jr., in Oppenheimer and Ryan Gosling in Barbie.

In the supporting actor female category, two less likely nominees that made the cut were Jodie Foster in Nyad and Penelope Cruz in Ferrari. There's been a push for Cruz in a film that was highly hyped but received mediocre reviews and box office return. Both Cruz and Foster are respected actors who have won numerous awards over the years, so their inclusion here is likely a sign of respect from fellow actors. I suspect at least one will not make the Oscar cut, but - of course - I'm still wondering how Emily Blunt keeps making the short lists.

In the lead acting categories, the most glaring omission was Leonardo DiCaprio in Killers of the Flower Moon, not because he should be there, but because of the movie's otherwise sweeping impact in several categories. In one of the more diverse categories, Coleman Domingo and Jeffrey Wright join Bradley Cooper, Paul Giamatti and Cillian Murphy. Still, it's probably a race between Cooper and Murphy.

In the lead female actor category, Annette Bening seems to have replaced Cailee Spaeny from Priscilla, likely due to Spaeny's newness to the industry and very understated performance. Too, Bening has been nominated many times in the past - and won - only to lose the Oscar. She's becoming the new Glenn Close in terms of Oscar noms with nothing to show for it. Again, look for a race to the finish between Lily Gladstone and Emma Stone.

Directors Guild Awards (DGA)

Awards Ceremony: Saturday, February 10

The most glaring omission from this years five nominees is Bradley Cooper for Maestro. Cooper was nominated for his first film, A Star is Born, and the strong reviews for his second directorial effort all but foreshadowed another nomination. Not sure what happened here. But there's a wrinkle: Traditionally, only four of the DGA's five nominees follow with an Oscar nomination, which begs the question: Which of the five this year will be left out on January 23? The five DGA nominees are Greta Gerwig, Christopher Nolan, Yorgos Lanthimos, Alexander Payne and Martin Scorsese. I'd remove Scorsese from the final five, only because his Killers of the Flower Moon did not show anything new to his filmmaking process, even with its "unique subject matter." I use quotation marks because the outbreak of murders among the Osage people in 1920s Oklahoma is only unique to those who don't read or study American history, or who are completely ignorant to the plight of indigenous peoples in our culture. It's like people who watched Twelve Years a Slave and were shocked to see slavery depicted so brutally. And 12 Years wasn't nearly as graphic as Django Unchained, made a year earlier. Sigh.

To complicate the possible results, AMPAS typically selects an international director, so Justine Triet's work on Anatomy of a Fall or Jonathan Glazer's Holocaust tale, The Zone of Interest might well nab that fifth Oscar nomination for directing, if one of the DGA's nominees is eliminated. So lots at stake here, both artistically and politically.

Care to pick who might not make the Oscar cut?

Hold on. There's more. The Producers Guild might make your selection even tougher....

Producers Guild Awards (PGA) Awards Ceremony: Sunday, February 25

The last guild to announce its 2024 nominees this week was the Producers Guild, and its list of the ten best films from last year is impressive:

Anatomy of a Fall American Fiction

Barbie The Holdovers

Killers of the Flower Moon Maestro

Oppenheimer Past Lives

Poor Things The Zone of Interest

In the past, you could line up Best Director and Best Picture, as the two winners typically aligned. Not so much since AMPAS expanded its list of Best Picture nominees from five to "up to" ten. If the PGA is any indication of the Oscars, we'll see no audience favorites like last year's Top Gun: Maverick or Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. No Marvel Comics installments or box office blockbuster action flicks. Even Indiana Jones didn't make the cut. Is Hollywood finally seeing that really great movies can also bring in significant box office returns? What a concept. Yay, Barbenheimer! Go Barbie! Go Oppy!

Anyway, lots to consider and evaluate in the weeks leading up the Oscars annual ceremony on ABC Sunday, March 10 @ 8:00 pm EDT (that's right, you'll lose an hour of sleep the night before and then need to stay up late).

Finally, the only major awards ceremony left on the circuit, the British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA) has not yet released its short list of nominees, but is scheduled to do so this week: Thursday, January 18 with the ceremony to follow next month on Sunday, February 18. The BAFTA's are not generally thought of as the definitive predictor of the Oscars as their nominations often favor British films and artists.

However, the Brits make-up the largest contingent of AMPAS voters after Americans, so their annual winners can sometimes impact voting before the Oscars. Remember Anthony Hopkins' surprise win over anticipated winner Chadwick Boseman (posthumously) in 2021, or Olivia Colman's upset win in 2019 for The Favorite when Glenn Close and Lady Gaga were alternatingly winning Best Actress awards for The Wife and A Star is Born, respectively? At any rate, no "locks" yet, even if Christopher Nolan is looking like the odds-on favorite to win Best Director for Oppenheimer.

Before any more winners are announced, though, I've got work to do. Upcoming reviews will include American Fiction, The Zone of Interest and The Color Purple. I know it's cold, even frigid in some parts of the country right now, but what better way to warm up than watching a hot movie? So venture out safely and support your local movie theater! After all, as Margot Robbie (Barbie) reminded us at last week's Globes: "We would like to thank every single person on the planet who dressed up and went to the greatest place on Earth: the movie theater." Indeed.