Golden Globes: MJ's Wrap-Up...and what it might mean for Oscar

Hollywood loves a good redemption story, and what better one this year that the reinvention of the recently disgraced Hollywood Foreign Press Association (HFPA), that mysterious group of phantom celebrity-seeking movie journalists who, since 1943, have held an annual awards bash/party that teases its audience with just how decadent Hollywood's Babylon might be. Food and alcohol are consumed in abundance as stars of the screens - big and little - participate in a sort of self-congratulatory ceremony of sumptuous proportions. The dubiousness of the Golden Globes has long since been a topic of discussion among genuine film critics and historians alike, but year after year celebrities showed up to walk the Red Carpet and viewers tuned in to see who would be sober when their name was announced.

Since 2018, HFPA has battled a slew of accusations, including sexual harassment (from Brandon Frasier) and racism (HFPA's membership was small and almost exclusively white), and after Tom Cruise famously returned his three Golden Globe trophies in protest of HFPA's suspicious practices and NBC cancelled the 2022 broadcast, the reformed HFPA is back with a larger, more diverse membership and a new telecast partner in CBS/Paramount.

So here we are with the now-dissolved HFPA, but with the Golden Globes poised to kick off the 2024 awards season, kicked off this evening with the Globes hoping to recapture its audience as well as some credibility and relevance in the Hollywood TV/film industry. With the Globes' distinction between comedy and drama in the lead acting and best picture categories, 2023's box office juggernaut known known as "Barbenheimer", Greta Gerwig's brilliant comedy satire and feminist manifesto about Mattel's iconic doll (with a record nine nominations) doesn't directly compete with Christopher Nolan's epic biopic about the man who invented the A-bomb (close behind with eight noms) except in the Director, Screenplay and Cinematic Achievement and Music categories. As the awards season tightens, we'll see more head-to-head competition between the two theatrical giants, so look to the SAG and BAFTA awards for a better sense of who will win on Oscar night, as both SAG and BAFTA have become more predictive of Oscar gold, despite what you might hear on some local news shows.

The Globes have never been considered "serious" in same way as the New York Film Critics, Critics Choice, SAG or BAFTA's. They mostly provide an opportunity for us mere mortals to get a glimpse of Hollywood celebrities partying at a fancy dinner. You know, the kind you might have been forced to go to for work? Only the dresses are designer and the champagne Dom Perignon.

Two additions to this year's Globes are the new film category: Cinematic and Box Office Achievement, which seems more like an opportunity to acknowledge a movie that wasn't a "best" film, but which made a lot of money. With nominees that range from Barbie to John Wick 4 and The Eras Tour, I suspect the HFPA is also hoping to add more celebrities to the RSVP list. Will Tom Cruise attend, given that his Mission Impossible installment is among the nominees? Taylor Swift, minus Travis Kelce (he may have another Sunday gig) is scheduled to attend.

A second change is the increased number of nominees, from five to six. In what appears to be an attempt to demonstrate a more inclusive approach to recognizing excellence, each of the categories expanded the nominees from five to six. Granted, the nature of creative performance can be somewhat subjective and arbitrary, especially when trying to compare different styles of expression, so being open to new and different artistic representations is good. Still, adding another name to the list for the sake of inviting more nominees to the party does not necessarily make the Globes more open or diverse.

To that end - and in advance of tonight's ceremony - I have marked those nominees in each of the film categories that probably should not be on the short list. Those names are marked *** and I've added a few notes on why I would not have included them, or why they are unlikely to move forward with other awards this year. If one of those I've marked wins, well... I'll stand by my assessment for now.

For the first time, I will be writing my reactions as the ceremony airs, so winners will be identified in BOLD and my general assessment of how that win may or may not play out as other awards (SAG, BAFTA, OSCARS) are announced. Got your champagne ready?

Remember:

*** Should not have been nominated.

Winners marked in bold.

Here we go!

Note to Globes producers: Cut the opening monologue. Or at least get someone who is funny.

Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy

Barbie

Poor Things

American Fiction

The Holdovers

May December

***Air

Air seemed mostly aimed at late-forties/early fifty-something guys who remember the 1980s and all the Michael Jordan hoopla. Detail to the period, including everything from music to clothes to bad hairstyles, is captured accurately. But, as the credits rolled, I couldn't help thinking that Air was like a fast-food meal: lots of hype and visually appealing, but a lot of empty calories.

Poor Things receiving this award makes the Oscar race a bit more interesting. It's tough to know if Yorgos Lanthimos' quirky "Bride of Frankenstein" send-up can sustain this momentum through the awards season, but it is a formidable, if unconventional comedy. But then four of the nominees in this category could hold their own against any of the Movie Drama nominees. And check out Lanthimos' fan boy gush over Bruce Springsteen, who was a nominees in the Best Original Song category.

Best Motion Picture – Drama

Oppenheimer

Killers of the Flower Moon

Maestro

Past Lives

***The Zone of Interest

Anatomy of a Fall

I've eliminated The Zone of Interest for now, mostly because of mixed reviews and questions about the movie's subject matter: A Nazi officer builds a home right outside Auschwitz and tries to manage his happy family life against the inhumanities of the concentration camp. Some very strong opinions on both sides of the film's merit, though I do expect it to be around for the Oscars.

Oppenheimer's win bodes well for an Oscar repeat. It has all the makings of an epic film, all the critical acclaim associated with smaller, independent films, and a box office to die for. The one film that will be interesting to watch going forward is Past Lives, a favorite among critics but scoring no Globe wins tonight. Not necessarily a bad thing, but nothing for Past Lives or Maestro is curious, to say the least.

Best Motion Picture – Non-English Language

Anatomy of a Fall

Io Capitano

Past Lives

Society of the Snow

***The Zone of Interest

I'm torn with this category because three of the "non-English" nominees are also in the Best Picture - Drama category. It used to be that foreign/international films were separated from English language movies, not that they need to remain that way, but the blurring of lines does create some question about what qualifies in each category.

With Anatomy's second win of the night, I'm now wondering if part of the appeal is political. France refused to send Anatomy for Oscar consideration after director Triet criticized French President Macron during an interview at the Cannes Film Festival, where Anatomy won the Palme D'Or.

Best Screenplay – Motion Picture

Barbie

Poor Things

Oppenheimer

***Killers of the Flower Moon

Past Lives

Anatomy of a Fall

Surprise win in a category where all the nominees are good. I singled out Killers mostly because of how Roth and Scorsese envisioned/adapted the book (re: their perspective may be culturally limited, but their intentions were good). Director Justine Triet's script, co-written w/her husband Arthur Harari is tight, compelling and intelligent. This is one example of where the "foreign press" may favor scripts from non-English screenwriters. Anatomy definitely has a different vibe and pace, a rhythm to the dialogue that is more European than American.

No love for Gerwig or Nolan here, and I'm not convinced Anatomy is better than either. Hmmm....

Best Original Song – Motion Picture

“Addicted to Romance,” Bruce Springsteen from She Came to Me

“Dance the Night,” Caroline Ailin, Dua Lipa, Mark Ronson and Andrew Wyatt from Barbie

“I’m Just Ken,” Mark Ronson and Andrew Wyatt from Barbie

***“Peaches,” Jack Black, Aaron Horvath, Michael Jelenic, Eric Osmond and John Spiker from The Super Mario Bros. Movie

“Road to Freedom,” Lenny Kravitz from Rustin

“What Was I Made For?” Billie Eilish & Finneas from Barbie

The first time I heard Eilish sing "What What I Made For?" I knew Oscar might be calling. Eilish captures musically the important themes in Barbie, showing that the film's comedy does not lessen the seriousness of its message. Beautiful, haunting song.

Have you heard "Peaches"?

Best Male Actor in a Supporting Role in Any Motion Picture

***Willem Dafoe, Poor Things

Robert DeNiro, Killers of the Flower Moon

Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer

Ryan Gosling, Barbie

Charles Melton, May December

Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things

Fourth Globe win for RDJ and a deserving one. Expect him to win often, though I suspect he will get some competition from Gosling and Melton throughout the awards season. And what a wry acceptance speech! Very entertaining, and a proven advantage toward future wins, though RDJ's self-deprecation could be interpreted as arrogance. As in past years, this category is very strong, so eliminating Dafoe is not a rag on his performance. He is fine, just perhaps not up to "memorable" standard of the other nominees.

Best Female Actor in a Supporting Role in Any Motion Picture

***Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer

Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple

Jodie Foster, Nyad

Julianne Moore, May December

Rosamund Pike, Saltburn

Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

Great choice and one that should be replicated often during the awards season. Genuine acceptance speech, though I wish recipients would try not to read their remarks. Don't they have to memorize dialogue? Randolph's biggest competition come Oscar time - should both be nominated - might be Danielle Books in The Color Purple. Brooks has already been recognized for the same role on Broadway. The one nominee whose performance is wickedly diabolic is Rosamund Pike, as the cynical mother in Saltburn, clearly one of her best cinematic roles, and she makes the most of it.

I wouldn't include Blunt with this list of nominees simply because her performance did not seem particularly strong, mostly one note, thoroughly bitchy (though that's not the reason I wasn't impressed). She seemed to be playing more of a "type" than a person. Blaming much of this deficiency on director Nolan who does not seem to understand women characters in his films.

Best Male Actor in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy

Nicolas Cage, Dream Scenario

Timothée Chalamet, Wonka

***Matt Damon, Air

Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers

Joaquin Phoenix, Beau Is Afraid

Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction

Damon's a fine, if sometimes underappreciated actor, but he suffers from being good in a film that doesn't really stay with you beyond the final frame. It's fun, but kind of forgettable.

A tour-de-force for Paul Giamatti, though I was kind of hoping Jeffrey Wright would be recognized. But Giamatti's nod to teachers everywhere was very cool. I doubt that he can overtake the force of Cillian Murphy or even Bradley Cooper on a short Oscar list. But we'll see.

Best Motion Picture – Animated

The Boy and the Heron

Elemental

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Suzume

***The Super Mario Bros. Movie

Wish

I suspect it might have been challenging to get six nominees in this category, so I'm eliminating the Mario Bros. on principle: an animated movie based on a video game? Ugh.

There really isn't much competition here, so The Boy and the Heron was expected and richly deserved. It is a moving work of art. An Oscar repeat is likely.

Best Male Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama

Bradley Cooper, Maestro

***Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon

Colman Domingo, Rustin

Barry Keoghan, Saltburn

Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer

Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers

The only upset here would have been Bradley Cooper who is currently many film critics' favorite to win Best Actor at the Oscars. Cillian Murphy will be his toughest competition, and may wind up this year's Oscar recipient as well. It is a big, but also nuanced performance, and Murphy inhabits Oppenheimer is much the same way that Cooper lives in Leonard Bernstein. Curious that both are playing important men of the mid-twentieth century.

I suspect Leo will nab an Oscar nomination, though my sense is that he is riding on the crest of being in another Scorsese film. His Ernest is a dimwit with few redeeming qualities and DiCaprio's performance sometimes oversteps into histrionics. But it will likely be Keoghan who doesn't make the Oscar cut. Too bad. He is a fascinating actor who has demonstrated range, depth and the ability to take risks.

Best Female Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama

Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon

Carey Mulligan, Maestro”

Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall

***Annette Bening, Nyad

Greta Lee, Past Lives

Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla

A lot of very strong performances by female actors, though Bening's portrayal of Diane Nyad went straight to streaming, making it less theatrical than the others, so I doubt she'll be around for the Oscars.

Despite many critics predicting an Oscar win for Carey Mulligan, Lily Gladstone continued her early win streak (she's won several other film critics awards so far). Gladstone's riveting portrayal of Osage's Mollie is a breakthrough for cinema. The fact that she is a first-time nominee may impact her long-term staying power (re: first-time nominees do not typically win the Oscar). But I suspect Lily will be around on Oscar night, and maybe give another moving speech.

Best Female Actor in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy

Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple

***Jennifer Lawrence, No Hard Feelings

Natalie Portman, May December

Margot Robbie, Barbie

Emma Stone, Poor Things

I said this in my review of Poor Things: Emma Stone is the actress to beat for the Oscars this year. Her Bella is a marvel and Stone embodies her every move.

I think even Jennifer Lawrence knew she was out of the competition when the camera zoomed in on her when the nominations were read. Not a great movie, and it's hard to win an award even if the performance was good.

Best Director – Motion Picture

Bradley Cooper, Maestro

Greta Gerwig, Barbie

Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things

Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer

***Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon

Celine Song, Past Lives

After six nominations, Christopher Nolan finally received a Globe. Bravo! And his heartfelt speech was a tribute to the actors he has worked with for so long. His memory of accepting on behalf of the late Heath Ledger provided a glimpse into his humanity and compassion.

I eliminated Scorsese mostly because I did not find his direction of Killers particularly engaging. Slow and often tedious, with an almost pedantic approach to storytelling, Scorsese could have tightened and edited the film to more powerful effect. Instead, he seemed determined to impress us with his sense of historical revelation about how indigenous peoples have been mistreated by Americans: the government, the military, corporations, private citizens. Wow.

Best Original Score

Jerskin Fendrix, Poor Things

Ludwig Göransson, Oppenheimer

Mica Levi, The Zone of Interest

***Daniel Pemberton, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Robbie Robertson, Killers of the Flower Moon

Joe Hisaishi, The Boy and the Heron

Like Nolan, Göransson has been nominated multiple times before tonight's first win. His moving score for Oppenheimer is an important layer in Nolan's epic story. Hard to say if this will bode well for the Oscar, but it can't hurt.

I eliminated Pemberton because the score was fairly uninspired and conventional.

Cinematic and Box Office Achievement

Barbie

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3

John Wick: Chapter 4

Mission: Impossible — Dead Reckoning Part One

Oppenheimer

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

***“The Super Mario Bros. Movie

Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour

Yay!

While this new award may seem ubiquitous and may even a big self-aggrandizing to some, the nominees suggest the Globes were looking beyond mere box office returns and popularity. When Barbie was announced as the winner, I was literally cheering. Who would have thought that two women - Greta Gerwig and Margot Robbie (both producers on the film) could have saved the movie industry? Barbie's popularity was buoyed by a brilliant script, phenomenal one-of-a-kind performances, and a message that was more human than plastic. Together with Oppenheimer, audiences flocked to the theaters this summer to see two very different films (neither an installment in a Marvel Comics franchise) that were intelligent, provocative and entertaining. Yay!

Can you think of a better reason to go out and see a movie?

See my previous comments about the Super Mario Bros. being eliminated from the nominees.

THE WRAP

Okay, folks. It's getting late on a Sunday night and I have places to be tomorrow morning. Have the Globes shed any light on the upcoming Oscars? Hard to say. The winners have confirmed some already-anticipated recipients, especially in the acting categories. The Best Director category will probably continue to be in flux for a while, so look for the SAG Ensemble and BAFTA winners to provide more of a clue into who will win.

Finally, Poor Things and Oppenheimer are movies to watch, along with Barbie which was clearly a favorite among the actors in attendance tonight. Their response to Gerwig/Robbie's win in the new "Cinematic Achievement" category may say something about how industry members (re: AMPAS) will vote come Oscar time.

No category is a "lock" yet, so more to come as more awards are presented and patterns may begin to emerge. The Oscars take place Sunday, March 10, so there's still time to catch many of these films in theatre (preferred), or via streaming (if you must).

And keep checking out my blog for more movie reviews and pre-Oscar analysis before my Oscar predictions go live the week of March 4.