And the nominees are....

Let's face it. This year's awards season has been a bit (a bit?) of a snoozer. First, we saw postponement after postponement of various awards shows air dates, nomination deadlines, etc. The Golden Globes finally arrived February 28 on what should have been Oscar night, only to demonstrate how underwhelming virtual ceremonies can be. Sure, it was great to see Mark Ruffalo's kids crash his acceptance speech when he won Best Actor in a Limited Series for "I Know This Much is True." But having Daniel Kaluuya on mute (or whatever sound issues he appeared to be having) during his "thank you" was just another reminder about the many annoyances of virtual meetings.

That said, I'm going to "unmute" myself in the hours before (finally!) the 93rd Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences announces its nominations and do something I've never done: predict the nominees. Well, sort of. Given the stops and starts of awards shows during the pandemic, I imagine there will be assorted stops and starts (re: snubs, omissions and surprises) among this year's nominees. Neither "Hollywood so White" nor "#MeToo" have disappeared (rightly so, in many cases), so expect a few mea culpa's and maybe f-you's among the nominees.

My usual, copiously worded analysis of the Oscars will follow closer to the April 25 ceremony. For now, though, let's look at a few of the major categories and see who/what might be recognized.

BEST PICTURE Using that ridiculously silly calculation that allows up to ten best pic nominees (though ten have yet to be nominated in any given year), I anticipate five pretty sure bets.

Expect: "Mank," "Nomadland," "The Trial of the Chicago 7," "Promising Young Woman" and "Minari." These films have received consistently strong reviews and award wins from other venues (various film critics circles and societies) as well as audience approval. For my money, "Mank," "Nomadland" and "Chicago 7" are the best of this lot, though "Minari" may surprise (I'm planning to watch it tonight).

Other Possibilities: "Judas and the Black Messiah," "Ma Rainey's Black Bottom," "One Night in Miami" and "Pieces of a Woman." This next group is very strong, though I wouldn't put "Ma Rainey" in the same "best" category as the others. "One Night in Miami," which boasts a strong cast and equally strong performances (notably, Leslie Odom, Jr.), is still - like "Ma Rainey" - an adaptation of a play that doesn't quite move beyond conventional Hollywood movie. Of these four, I would not be surprised to see "Judas" and "Pieces" among the nominees, and I would argue that "Judas" deserves a spot here. "Pieces" is very well done, but (for me), a bit of self-indulgent feminism. A potential alternative to "Pieces" would be "Promising Young Woman," already recognized for its writer-director Emerald Fennel and equally (if not cheekier) powerful in its feminism.

Wouldn't it be great to see: "Borat Subsequent Moviefilm" - probably not up to the Academy members' taste or sensibilities, but this sequel to "Borat" is even more audacious and relevant than the first, if that's possible. And, one of my favorites this year - "Supernova" - a beautifully lyrical film, arguably too quiet and unassuming to capture Academy voters, should - but won't - make the cut. But it is a "must-see" film included on everyone's short list of great films this year.

BEST DIRECTOR

Only five women TOTAL have ever been nominated in this category (I'll save the list for my Oscar predictions), and this year will likely add a sixth: Chloe Zhao, for capturing the exquisite loneliness of post-modern American pioneers (re: transients) in "Nomadland." I'm making an early prediction that this film could take it all come Oscar night, but fully anticipate a nomination for Zhao. In addition, we may see two other women nominated this year: Emerald Fennell for "Promising Young Woman" and Regina King for "One Night in Miami." Though King is Hollywood royalty (pun intended), a previous Oscar winner as Supporting Actress, I'm not sure her directorial debut will garner an Oscar nod, especially w/Zhao and Fennell as competitors and only five slots open here.

Expect: Chloe Zhao, "Nomadland," David Fincher, "Mank," and Aaron Sorkin, "Chicago 7." Both Fincher and Sorkin delivered top-notch, sharply written, smartly acted films. Unfortunately, they are the type of director Hollywood typically honors, and diversity may prove too powerful an issue to overcome this year.

Other possibilities: Emerald Fennell for "Promising Young Woman" - who has received a nomination from both the Directors Guild of America (DGA) and the British Academy (BAFTA). "PYM" is bold in its depiction of women's empowerment (maybe too much for some Academy members), but its message packs a wallop, and Fennell merits consideration here. The other likely choice is Lee Isaac Chung for "Minari," a touching re-imagining of the American dream, told for a 21st century audience. If Fennell and Chung join Zhao, Fincher and Sorkin, four of the five nominees will be there for the first time. And first-time directing nominees rarely win. But then, this isn't a typical year or a usual time for movies.

Surprise? Spike Lee for "Da 5 Bloods." Just sayin'.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Aaron Sorkin is becoming a perennial nominee here (shades of Woody Allen - oops! - I said the "W" word), and he is definitely worthy of the accolades, given his consistently intelligent, engaging dialogue. The other nominees are all likely newcomers.

Expect: Sorkin for "Chicago 7" and also the writing teams from "Judas and the Black Messiah," "The Sound of Metal" and Emerald Fennell for "Promising Young Woman." Less likely, but possible are the team from "Palm Springs," Writers Guild (WGA) nominee in this category and Golden Globe nominee for Best Comedy or Musical.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY This category could be very interesting, especially if the WGA is any indication of nominees.

Expect: The writers or writing teams from "Ma Rainey" and "One Night in Miami" for making the transition from play to film (though I doubt either will win), and possibly the team from the tepidly received "News of the World."

If you want drama: Sasha Baron Cohen & Company for "Borat" would be a courageous inclusion here, as would Ramin Bahrani for "The White Tiger" (though the latter would be more in line with what the Academy acknowledges).

BEST ANIMATED FILM

It doesn't matter how many nominees make the final list: "Soul" will be nominated....and win.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG/SCORE Song: Perennial nominee/never winner Diane Warren should pick up a nom for "Io Si" (The Life Ahead), based on her upset victory at the Globes. But she'll get strong competition from "Speak Now" (One Night in Miami), "Fight for You" (Judas) and "Hear My Voice" (Chicago 7). Anything else is who cares?

Score: Alexandre Desplat and James Howard Newton are likely to repeat for "The Midnight Sky" and "News of the World," respectively. But Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross may score (punning again) two noms for "Soul" and "Mank." Good stuff here.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR This may be one of the most interesting - and close - races of the year.

Expect: Leslie Odom, Jr. for "One Night in Miami" and Daniel Kaluuya for "Judas and the Black Messiah" (although I could make a good case for why Kaluuya's turn as slain activist Fred Hampton is not a supporting role). And I am going to predict that Sasha Baron Cohen for "Chicago 7" will also grab a nom.

Maybe? Spike Lee's "Da 5 Bloods" has been mostly ignored by awards circles this year, despite strong reviews. Delroy Lindo's searing performance as a Vietnam vet turned Trumpee should be included, arguably moreso than Chadwick Boseman's martyred soldier in the same film. Oscar winner Jared Leto (in this category) in "The Little Things" has not gotten much attention, so don't be surprised if his name isn't read on Monday.

I'd love to see: Bill Murray for "On the Rocks" (definitely a longshot) OR Alan Kim for "Minari" (tough road for Asian actors) OR Paul Raci ("Sound of Metal").

BEST SUPPORING ACTRESS This category keeps changing, with early favorite Amanda Seyfried failing to capture any major win (Globes, Critics Choice), or even a SAG or BAFTA nomination.

Expect: Maria Bakalova in "Borat Subsequent Moviefilm." I know, probably not the eventual winner, but a memorable (sort of) film debut. Also - and unfortunately - Glenn Close for "Hillbilly Elegy." If Close secures a nom, she'll hold the distinction of being the most-nominated/never won actor. It would just be a shame (and maybe even a crime), if Close won for this performance, given her otherwise long and iconic career. The other name I expect here is Olivia Colman for "The Father."

Possible noms: Dominque Fishback has gotten considerable support for being ignored by early awards for "Judas," so that momentum may help her here (as might her BAFTA nom). Helena Zengel for "News of the World" is losing momentum, BUT Yuh-Jung Youn for "Minari" would be a welcome selection. Again, as with Alan Kim, Asian American actors have a rough go w/Oscar noms.

Longshot? Jodie Foster for "The Mauritanian." Two-time Oscar winner Foster surprised everyone w/her recent Globe win in this category, so don't count her out for another Oscar nom in a supporting role.

BEST ACTOR

Chadwick Boseman, Chadwick Boseman, Chadwick Boseman.

There will be a universal thud if much-beloved actor Boseman's name is not announced as a nom in this category (or the winner come April 24). His distinguished career cut short by cancer has only emphasized the range and power of his talent. His name will be read on Monday. Expect: With much of this category up in the air due to recent noms from BAFTA, it's anybody's guess who will join Boseman in the lead actor group. I do think Oscar winner Gary Oldman (so good in "Mank") has a shot here but, because "Mank" is such an insider movie that many people don't quite get, he may not have the momentum to ride to a nom this year. If not, too bad. He should be here. Rising on the list of possibilities is another Best Actor winner, Anthony Hopkins for "The Father."

And everybody else: Depending on how Hollywood plans to honor the diversity card, there are a number of worthy and eligible contenders here: Riz Ahmed in "Sound of Metal," Tahar Rahim in "The Mauritanian" and Steven Yeun in "Minari." I would love to see Stanley Tucci for "Supernova" included here but, per my assessment of the movie itself, don't anticipate any new recognition for durable journeyman Tucci. Regardless of who fills out the final four, Boseman's trouble Levee in "Ma Rainey" will take the Oscar.

BEST ACTRESS Like Best Actor, this category keeps changing with every award show, but there are a few names to count on.

Expect: Two-time Oscar winner Frances McDormand gives "Nomadland" its edge and its heart, and she will repeat with another nom here. Ditto Viola Davis for "Ma Rainey," although I was less impressed w/Davis's almost grotesque (thank the make-up artist) portrayal of blues singer Ma Rainey. The other anticipated nomination is Vanessa Kirby for "Pieces of a Woman.

But maybe: Early favorite Carey Mulligan has not dominated the awards season as predicted, but she should join this group. It's the fifth spot that is up for grabs.

Which longshot will prevail? Andra Day won the Golden Globe for "The United States v. Billie Holiday," but I'd be surprised to see her here. Amy Adams has received recognition for "Hillbilly Elegy," but the movie's poor reviews are not an asset here. That leaves the field wide open for the last nomination, so we'll see whose name is on the short list in a few days.

The other awards, from cinematography to sound to set design, typically rely on the acting, writing and directing categories for recognition except in circumstances where a film like "Blade Runner 2049" will rise up because of an industry favorite (cinematographer) Roger Deakins, or dazzling technology and visual effects. In this way, a lovely film like "Emma." might just steal away costume or production design.

We shall see. In any case, I know where I'll be Monday morning, March 15, still a bit jet-lagged from the spring forward time leap, but eager to see if the (so much delayed) Oscar nominations will spark some much-needed energy and enthusiasm for the April 25 ceremony. We can only hope.

And the nominees are.....